I will keep saying this to anyone who will listen: I don't pay attention to polls or trends. The Democratic Party has done something I never expected and certainly did not anticipate. They made me a straight ticket Republican voter. A (D) behind a candidate's name guarantees I will not consider any of their policies.
I agree wholeheartedly. But, in all honesty I haven’t found Democrats to even hold any policies to consider anymore. I’m not even getting platitudes remotely tethered to reality from Democrats in my area, let alone an arguable policy viewpoint. I see a (D) on the ballot now and can’t even think of a platform or policy that’s theirs and not DSA-sourced. Even if some of the (R)’s policies could be better, at least they have some and attempt an argument for it.
The list is long but Spanberger, in Virginia, is as good a reason as any. She sold herself as moderate but went straight back to hard left, the second she was elected. The fact that someone as batshit crazy as Talarico is treated as an adult with real ideas is another good reason.
I'll pipe in b/c 11 years ago I canvassed for a Socialist and now wear a MAGA hat proudly...
There wasn't a single thing for me. Instead, like a relationship going sour, it was an accumulation of things, one on top of the other. Russiagate turned into a calculated hoax. Transgenderism defied all laws of logic and reality with word salads. George Floyd was a thug with a heart condition high on drugs. COVID. Assassinations. Lies piled on top of lies; remember 'good people on both sides' and the Russian bounty hunters?
And all of it; I mean A L L came from one direction.
There was no penny dropping, nor a 'final straw'. It was more of a rising awareness. Which I think results in a stronger conviction when the realization occurs b/c there's just such a plethora of instances recalled.
"There was no penny dropping, nor a 'final straw'. It was more of a rising awareness. Which I think results in a stronger conviction when the realization occurs b/c there's just such a plethora of instances recalled."
I have always voted Republican so I haven't had this experience with politics, but I sure have with the "medical industry." In some ways, I'm thankful for Covid bc of all that it revealed about institutional medicine and the pool of lies they swim in. They are entirely political and owned by Big Pharma. Withdrawing very effective ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine from the market so that the gene-therapy covid "vaccine" could get approval opened my eyes very wide. I'm a nurse from a very medical family & this was the world I believed in, so the cognitive dissonance was extreme. But once you see it, you can't unsee it. I do not trust anything from public health, and especially all vaccines. Vaccines are a mountain of lies and most doctors don't know that bc guess what else Pharma owns? Medical schools, and all of MSM.
Exactly the same sudden loss of trust happened to me, a retired lawyer, when I saw how the courts ducked all the real issues regarding the Fauci Flu and the 2020 election corruption. Like you, my trust in the System had been complete. Sure, from the inside I saw corruption and dishonesty and every other human sin, but I believed the body was healthy. Boy, was it a shock to find out how wrong I had been. I have voted for a Democrat exactly twice in my life (I’m 72), so there won’t be much change in how I vote. The urgency of winning elections has gone up a few ticks on the chart, though.
That relationship analogy is a good one - I see people like Bill Maher, Matt Taibbi, Elon Musk, Rob Schneider and other classic liberals being left behind and it just makes me really wonder. Thanks and welcome!
I always leaned more conservative, but would sometimes vote (D) in my teens through twenties. Obamacare (ACA) is what clinched it for me. Never Again! They've only gotten worse in the years since.
I actually voted for McCarthy in the presidential primary back in the 70s. And later voted for Durbin. I’m still trying to figure out why, but I’m thinking it was left over hive mind virus from college. Also it was well before our country’s politics went sideways
Of course, we will never know with any certainty. But we can and do know that big tent progressivism was mistaken and deserved to go down to defeat in 1948. And we can readily speculate that Humphrey, given his history, would realize that it would be much better to face the Iranian threat today than to appease it.
One could even hear him telling the socialists, the communists and the Islamists to take a hike, rather than attach themselves to–and even seek to become the driving force of–his political party. And while HHH was at it, he might even see fit to tell his old party to quit copying another Minnesotan, namely Charles Lindbergh, who blemished his own good name by blaming Roosevelt and the Jews for seeking to get us into World War II.
Then it was time for Hubert Humphrey’s party to save England. Why wouldn’t he think that today it ought to be time for his party to help preserve Israel? Or at least be part of a bipartisan effort to do so? After all, since he supported Truman and the creation of Israel in 1948, he surely would see the importance of American action to help assure the continuing existence of a thriving and democratic Israel in 2026 and beyond. Hubert Humphrey may no longer be on hand, but the moment and need for a smaller-tent, Hubert Humphrey-inspired DFL surely is.
Me too. Before 2016 I would never have dreamed I would ever stop voting blue. I thought i would die a Democrat. In 2024 I cat my first straight R ticket.
I like that you address the "prediction" markets. I've been thinking lately that, for politics, candidates might be better off just pouring money previously used for ad money into the prediction markets to, as you mentioned, demoralize the opposition. It will be interesting how this election plays out and whether or not the prediction markets have been compromised.
In his Sunday evening livestream, Seth Keshel (Captain K’s Corner here on Substack) said there is a lot of “dark money” flowing into Polymarket to stack the figures in favor of the left. He said he hopes to have more definite information on that in days to come, but the idea sure doesn’t surprise me.
And that is why I haven't bothered with the Oscars in years and years nor been to see much of what main stream Hollywood has to offer at the theatres. It used to be an exciting night to watch but it is just a yawner now, especially because everyone has their causes. If Ricky Gervais was invited to roast - I mean host - maybe I would consider it.
I think both polls and betting markets are manipulated to demoralize the MAGA base. Clown polls like Marist and Quinnipac (or whatever it's called) keep making the same mistakes, election after election. You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to think it's intentional at this point.
As for the betting markets, a few thousand dollars to manipulate them may be a good political investment.
Democrats rig elections. Is someone (intelligent) really so naive as to think they don't rig polls and betting markets?
100% they do. And it's top to bottom cheating, in every way possible. I'm of the firm belief that Democrats would never win another national election if fraud and cheating were eliminated, and it wouldn't even be close. They know this about themselves and the desire for power is much stronger than any shred of honesty they have. Plus the overwhelming desire and opportunity to steal taxpayers' money----look at every blue state.
The polls are like those publications. They are trying to help their favorites. They don't know if YOU will vote. Vote today. Make it happen. Make sure your friends vote too.
I wouldn’t bet ten cents through a prediction market that is easily manipulated. I wouldn’t bet ten cents on an election with the Dems engaging in massive election fraud.
I STOPPED going to the movies when Landmark Cinemas started charging me a buck to book my e-ticket online. There's plenty of other avenues of good entertainment I can access b/t Netflix and Prime Video. I also recall that pirating is still going on.
I DGAF about any celebrity outside of Cruise; and that's b/c he keeps himself to himself.
As a Boomer, I recall in the 90's, watching Entertainment Tonight with Tesh and Hart regularly, and I also subscribed to Entertainment Weekly. And of course, I watched the Oscars.
Today? Nahhh...
Sure, part of it could be age... but if so, why do so many of my cohort still cheer for the Yankees or KC Chiefs?
I think it's more a case of actors got too far over their skis in terms of ego; and I've learned that they detest half the country.
Back in the '90's I had a friend that was really, really, into movies, so I ended up seeing quite a lot of shows that I otherwise wouldn't have seen. We lost touch after I got married as I didn't have the time, nor the money, anymore to invest. That's been over 20 years now, and I really couldn't tell you much about most of the movies that have come out in the last couple of decades. And the awards shows always seemed like just a log rolling event to give each other recognition and extra promotional material, rather than an honest reckoning of what was actually good. I have other interests now.
I learned how to manipulate polls when I took Probability & Statistics in high school, then took statistics again in college. Political polls have always been suspect. The betting markets have done better at predicting winners the last several years because they have different biases than the pollsters. But as more people turn to sites like kalshi to predict political races, those biases will have a tendency to merge as political entities learn how to manipulate betting markets. In short, every type of prediction, whether polling, betting, or something else, has its own biases that need to be accounted for. Unless you're extremely interested into digging into how the information is gathered, the safest bet is not to play because nobody knows everything.
Sasha, when you hit the latest Trump rape accusation Raskin is floating, check the Zampolli timeline. Trump hadn't met 'Paolo' until a year after the alleged victim claims Trump told her he'd help with her visa. No one's caught that yet.
If all this was real, we would have heard about it years ago. Rape is illegal after all and should be prosecuted. Why wait till RIGHT before the election??? Probably so it has effect before getting debunked.
This has all the markings of a last-ditch wrap-up smear, calculated to inflict maximum damage in the week before voters go to the polls. What troubles me most is the contempt it suggests for Democratic voters. Just how little intelligence do the people pushing this story attribute to their own supporters if they expect them to swallow an accusation riddled with chronological inconsistencies that even a cursory examination would expose?
Polymarket and Kalshi. We've seen massive amounts of (dark) money, on behalf of dems specifically, funneled into insidious efforts promoting untruths. Is it possible that these same people would funnel money into Polymarket and Kalshi to slant the odds in favor of their agenda? Yes. When power is on the line, manipulation is not off the table.
Any betting market swings with the weight bet; how much money turns Kalshi odds upside down? Consider it political marketing expense. The Dems' only hope is to depress Republican turnout, because they're a mess otherwise.
Sasha, I’m sure there’s no chance at all that all the foreign dark money that used to come through ActBlue would never be used to sway the betting markets for Democrats to black pill Republicans…. Naw, never happen…. 🤔
Plus, those markets is coffee and Covid said have been using bad information from other poles to give them the boost for these candidates that they’re favoring because the other ones were
"Prediction markets" (i.e. gambling) are just as gamed as the polls. There was a brief period where they could detect trends that the polls could not, but now the insiders are onto them are they are just used to push whatever message they want.
This particular edition of Democrats would make any SANE person wonder why anyone would vote for them. Newsom sealed the deal by admitting in a hidden camera video that the DSA holds all the energy of the Party and that mainstream Dems would follow that energy.
I will keep saying this to anyone who will listen: I don't pay attention to polls or trends. The Democratic Party has done something I never expected and certainly did not anticipate. They made me a straight ticket Republican voter. A (D) behind a candidate's name guarantees I will not consider any of their policies.
This is the way. Don’t fall for the Bolshevik demoralization ops. If Trump’s 2024 voters show up we win: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/2026-midterms-vote-gop-not-dsa
I've voted Republican or Independent since Reagan but, until now, had considered all candidates and their policy proposals. That openness has ended.
I agree wholeheartedly. But, in all honesty I haven’t found Democrats to even hold any policies to consider anymore. I’m not even getting platitudes remotely tethered to reality from Democrats in my area, let alone an arguable policy viewpoint. I see a (D) on the ballot now and can’t even think of a platform or policy that’s theirs and not DSA-sourced. Even if some of the (R)’s policies could be better, at least they have some and attempt an argument for it.
Welcome. I'm always genuinely curious, what was the final straw for you in your switch? Please share if you'd like otherwise, again, welcome.
The list is long but Spanberger, in Virginia, is as good a reason as any. She sold herself as moderate but went straight back to hard left, the second she was elected. The fact that someone as batshit crazy as Talarico is treated as an adult with real ideas is another good reason.
Thanks!
I'll pipe in b/c 11 years ago I canvassed for a Socialist and now wear a MAGA hat proudly...
There wasn't a single thing for me. Instead, like a relationship going sour, it was an accumulation of things, one on top of the other. Russiagate turned into a calculated hoax. Transgenderism defied all laws of logic and reality with word salads. George Floyd was a thug with a heart condition high on drugs. COVID. Assassinations. Lies piled on top of lies; remember 'good people on both sides' and the Russian bounty hunters?
And all of it; I mean A L L came from one direction.
There was no penny dropping, nor a 'final straw'. It was more of a rising awareness. Which I think results in a stronger conviction when the realization occurs b/c there's just such a plethora of instances recalled.
"There was no penny dropping, nor a 'final straw'. It was more of a rising awareness. Which I think results in a stronger conviction when the realization occurs b/c there's just such a plethora of instances recalled."
I have always voted Republican so I haven't had this experience with politics, but I sure have with the "medical industry." In some ways, I'm thankful for Covid bc of all that it revealed about institutional medicine and the pool of lies they swim in. They are entirely political and owned by Big Pharma. Withdrawing very effective ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine from the market so that the gene-therapy covid "vaccine" could get approval opened my eyes very wide. I'm a nurse from a very medical family & this was the world I believed in, so the cognitive dissonance was extreme. But once you see it, you can't unsee it. I do not trust anything from public health, and especially all vaccines. Vaccines are a mountain of lies and most doctors don't know that bc guess what else Pharma owns? Medical schools, and all of MSM.
Exactly the same sudden loss of trust happened to me, a retired lawyer, when I saw how the courts ducked all the real issues regarding the Fauci Flu and the 2020 election corruption. Like you, my trust in the System had been complete. Sure, from the inside I saw corruption and dishonesty and every other human sin, but I believed the body was healthy. Boy, was it a shock to find out how wrong I had been. I have voted for a Democrat exactly twice in my life (I’m 72), so there won’t be much change in how I vote. The urgency of winning elections has gone up a few ticks on the chart, though.
OK, I'm a Boomer (68) and I was a 'Meds Keener' in college who was unable to pass Orgo.
Now at this stage in my life, regarding my health care, if I want a straight answer, I ASK THE NURSE.
That relationship analogy is a good one - I see people like Bill Maher, Matt Taibbi, Elon Musk, Rob Schneider and other classic liberals being left behind and it just makes me really wonder. Thanks and welcome!
I always leaned more conservative, but would sometimes vote (D) in my teens through twenties. Obamacare (ACA) is what clinched it for me. Never Again! They've only gotten worse in the years since.
I actually voted for McCarthy in the presidential primary back in the 70s. And later voted for Durbin. I’m still trying to figure out why, but I’m thinking it was left over hive mind virus from college. Also it was well before our country’s politics went sideways
Same. I saw "safe, legal and rare" turn into "whatever and whenever" and was like whoa. Thanks!
If I may This is not you fathers Democratic Party.
Chuck Chalberg: The DFL then and now
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/10/chuck-chalberg-the-dfl-then-and-now.php
(Snip)
Of course, we will never know with any certainty. But we can and do know that big tent progressivism was mistaken and deserved to go down to defeat in 1948. And we can readily speculate that Humphrey, given his history, would realize that it would be much better to face the Iranian threat today than to appease it.
One could even hear him telling the socialists, the communists and the Islamists to take a hike, rather than attach themselves to–and even seek to become the driving force of–his political party. And while HHH was at it, he might even see fit to tell his old party to quit copying another Minnesotan, namely Charles Lindbergh, who blemished his own good name by blaming Roosevelt and the Jews for seeking to get us into World War II.
Then it was time for Hubert Humphrey’s party to save England. Why wouldn’t he think that today it ought to be time for his party to help preserve Israel? Or at least be part of a bipartisan effort to do so? After all, since he supported Truman and the creation of Israel in 1948, he surely would see the importance of American action to help assure the continuing existence of a thriving and democratic Israel in 2026 and beyond. Hubert Humphrey may no longer be on hand, but the moment and need for a smaller-tent, Hubert Humphrey-inspired DFL surely is.
Me too. Before 2016 I would never have dreamed I would ever stop voting blue. I thought i would die a Democrat. In 2024 I cat my first straight R ticket.
The one thing certain about the prediction markets is that the house always wins.
I like that you address the "prediction" markets. I've been thinking lately that, for politics, candidates might be better off just pouring money previously used for ad money into the prediction markets to, as you mentioned, demoralize the opposition. It will be interesting how this election plays out and whether or not the prediction markets have been compromised.
In his Sunday evening livestream, Seth Keshel (Captain K’s Corner here on Substack) said there is a lot of “dark money” flowing into Polymarket to stack the figures in favor of the left. He said he hopes to have more definite information on that in days to come, but the idea sure doesn’t surprise me.
And that is why I haven't bothered with the Oscars in years and years nor been to see much of what main stream Hollywood has to offer at the theatres. It used to be an exciting night to watch but it is just a yawner now, especially because everyone has their causes. If Ricky Gervais was invited to roast - I mean host - maybe I would consider it.
I think both polls and betting markets are manipulated to demoralize the MAGA base. Clown polls like Marist and Quinnipac (or whatever it's called) keep making the same mistakes, election after election. You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to think it's intentional at this point.
As for the betting markets, a few thousand dollars to manipulate them may be a good political investment.
Democrats rig elections. Is someone (intelligent) really so naive as to think they don't rig polls and betting markets?
100% they do. And it's top to bottom cheating, in every way possible. I'm of the firm belief that Democrats would never win another national election if fraud and cheating were eliminated, and it wouldn't even be close. They know this about themselves and the desire for power is much stronger than any shred of honesty they have. Plus the overwhelming desire and opportunity to steal taxpayers' money----look at every blue state.
100%. Betting markets have been turned into another form of pushing propaganda just like polls.
The polls are like those publications. They are trying to help their favorites. They don't know if YOU will vote. Vote today. Make it happen. Make sure your friends vote too.
I wouldn’t bet ten cents through a prediction market that is easily manipulated. I wouldn’t bet ten cents on an election with the Dems engaging in massive election fraud.
I STOPPED going to the movies when Landmark Cinemas started charging me a buck to book my e-ticket online. There's plenty of other avenues of good entertainment I can access b/t Netflix and Prime Video. I also recall that pirating is still going on.
I DGAF about any celebrity outside of Cruise; and that's b/c he keeps himself to himself.
As a Boomer, I recall in the 90's, watching Entertainment Tonight with Tesh and Hart regularly, and I also subscribed to Entertainment Weekly. And of course, I watched the Oscars.
Today? Nahhh...
Sure, part of it could be age... but if so, why do so many of my cohort still cheer for the Yankees or KC Chiefs?
I think it's more a case of actors got too far over their skis in terms of ego; and I've learned that they detest half the country.
Agreed 100%.
Back in the '90's I had a friend that was really, really, into movies, so I ended up seeing quite a lot of shows that I otherwise wouldn't have seen. We lost touch after I got married as I didn't have the time, nor the money, anymore to invest. That's been over 20 years now, and I really couldn't tell you much about most of the movies that have come out in the last couple of decades. And the awards shows always seemed like just a log rolling event to give each other recognition and extra promotional material, rather than an honest reckoning of what was actually good. I have other interests now.
I learned how to manipulate polls when I took Probability & Statistics in high school, then took statistics again in college. Political polls have always been suspect. The betting markets have done better at predicting winners the last several years because they have different biases than the pollsters. But as more people turn to sites like kalshi to predict political races, those biases will have a tendency to merge as political entities learn how to manipulate betting markets. In short, every type of prediction, whether polling, betting, or something else, has its own biases that need to be accounted for. Unless you're extremely interested into digging into how the information is gathered, the safest bet is not to play because nobody knows everything.
Sasha, when you hit the latest Trump rape accusation Raskin is floating, check the Zampolli timeline. Trump hadn't met 'Paolo' until a year after the alleged victim claims Trump told her he'd help with her visa. No one's caught that yet.
If all this was real, we would have heard about it years ago. Rape is illegal after all and should be prosecuted. Why wait till RIGHT before the election??? Probably so it has effect before getting debunked.
This has all the markings of a last-ditch wrap-up smear, calculated to inflict maximum damage in the week before voters go to the polls. What troubles me most is the contempt it suggests for Democratic voters. Just how little intelligence do the people pushing this story attribute to their own supporters if they expect them to swallow an accusation riddled with chronological inconsistencies that even a cursory examination would expose?
Far too much power is on the line to believe anything right now.
Polymarket and Kalshi. We've seen massive amounts of (dark) money, on behalf of dems specifically, funneled into insidious efforts promoting untruths. Is it possible that these same people would funnel money into Polymarket and Kalshi to slant the odds in favor of their agenda? Yes. When power is on the line, manipulation is not off the table.
Any betting market swings with the weight bet; how much money turns Kalshi odds upside down? Consider it political marketing expense. The Dems' only hope is to depress Republican turnout, because they're a mess otherwise.
Sasha, I’m sure there’s no chance at all that all the foreign dark money that used to come through ActBlue would never be used to sway the betting markets for Democrats to black pill Republicans…. Naw, never happen…. 🤔
Plus, those markets is coffee and Covid said have been using bad information from other poles to give them the boost for these candidates that they’re favoring because the other ones were
illigit numbers
"Prediction markets" (i.e. gambling) are just as gamed as the polls. There was a brief period where they could detect trends that the polls could not, but now the insiders are onto them are they are just used to push whatever message they want.
This particular edition of Democrats would make any SANE person wonder why anyone would vote for them. Newsom sealed the deal by admitting in a hidden camera video that the DSA holds all the energy of the Party and that mainstream Dems would follow that energy.