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Pacificus's avatar

Trump's effort to force a hard re-set of the globalist "free trade" system that has destroyed the middle class and greatly weakened the US is one of the boldest, most radical gambits ever advanced by an American president. If it is successful (and at this point in time that is still by no means certain), it will go down as one of the single biggest reforms in American history. We are watching history being made, in real time. Stay tuned.

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Bill Pieper's avatar

He is doing what numerous Democrats were calling for 20 years ago. And of course, now that Trump is doing it, ... Orange Man Bad!

Democrats will be extinct after DOGE referrals to Justice are acted upon. I can smell their soiled undies from the West Pacific.

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vader's avatar

big part of TDS is understanding that he would have been an exceptional Democratic candidate if Democrats weren't so corrupt. I've been reading books on 2016-2024 elections and hoo boy no wonder Democrats kept losing. Biden was an exception only due to unprecedented circumstances that were exploited to the max (and his rival's reluctancy to jump on the same wagon) but in the end his win only delayed the inevitable while buying his competitor 4 extra years of relevancy that upstaged POTUS himself and set the stage for a historical comeback.

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Jen Koenig - Adaptive Journey's avatar

This is what the left has been talking about wanting to do since the WTO riots in Seattle at the turn of the century. The fact that it's being done now but it's a Republican AND that Republican is Donald Trump is breaking brains. I have lefty friends now basically cheering for foreign slave labor and Blackrock profits and when I point this out they will end the friendship before they end their belief structure. Crazy.

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vader's avatar

That right there is left's problem. Orange Man is as left as it gets in many ways but those ways are reasonable and people support them. Much like Bernie populism before it got tainted by idpol nonsense. Now left can't get out of idpol muck if it tried cause those crazies are their base.

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Pacificus's avatar

Jen, don't know if you follow Matt Taibbi, but he and Walt Kirn just discussed The Battle of Seattle and the subsequent ironies associated with it and its participants.

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Jen Koenig - Adaptive Journey's avatar

Yep! Love that podcast. On my calendar every Mondaty at 8pm. I was at the Battle of Seattle and got caught up in the tear gassing while fleeing when things got violent. (I do not condone violence.) It's crazy all those friends who were with me then are fighting against these tariffs now!

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Beeswax's avatar

One of their best, most thoughtful, expansive and educational episodes ever.

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Pacificus's avatar

So true, Jen, so true. Stay strong when dealing with your "friends." The dynamic at this point is more about an individual's psychology than it is about politics.

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geraldsd's avatar

I agree. It’s as important an event as the Civil War. In point of fact it is a Civil War.

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Ryan Adams's avatar

I'd love to hear why / how people think Trump's approach could be successful, given changed circumstances vs the Leave it to Beaver era that so many maga would like to return to.

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Neil Kellen's avatar

Don't even bother prefacing anything with "I'd love to hear..." because you don't. Your cultural reference is proof of that.

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susan's avatar

Ryan,You can do some research online. There are many YouTube videos and talks about Trump's agenda and the Art of the Deal.

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Ryan Adams's avatar

We'll know in several months or perhaps a year+ if it's successful - upcoming special elections, polls, inflation, etc.

Here are some current and expected impacts:

🔺 U.S. Economic Impacts

- Inflation Surge: Consumer prices expected to rise, with inflation projected to reach up to 4% in 2025, driven by higher import costs (e.g., clothing, electronics, cars).

Slower Growth: U.S. GDP growth forecast to fall from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, and 1.6% in 2026.

- Policy Dilemma: The Fed faces tension between controlling inflation and supporting growth, making interest rate decisions more complex.

- Market Volatility: Increased uncertainty and erratic trade moves have led to sharp stock market drops and reduced business investment.

- Voters investment nest eggs being shat on.

🌍 Global Economic Repercussions

- Global GDP Softening: Growth projected to slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, due to disrupted trade flows.

- Retaliation Risks: Countries affected by U.S. tariffs (e.g., Canada, UK, China) considering retaliatory measures, further straining global trade.

- Weakened Consumer Confidence Abroad: Tariffs have impacted global sentiment toward the U.S., influencing spending and travel.

✈️ Tourism-Specific Impacts

Sharp Drop in Canadian Tourism:

- Flight bookings down 71–76% year-over-year.

- 40% drop in leisure travel bookings in Feb 2025 (note month... before Tariff D-Day late last week

- 10% flight cuts to U.S. destinations like Florida and Las Vegas.

$2–4 Billion Loss Risk:

- U.S. could lose over $2 billion in Canadian tourist spending, potentially doubling if trends persist.

- Up to 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk.

- Redirection of Travel: Canadian and international tourists shifting trips to Mexico, the Caribbean, and Europe.

Bottom Line:

Trump’s tariffs are driving higher prices, weaker growth, reduced global confidence, and sharp declines in international tourism to the U.S., especially from Canada. The combined effect is mounting pressure on the economy and strained international relations.

Interestingly, maga appears not to be thinking to deeply or thinking these are great!

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Pacificus's avatar

Well Ryan, I wouldn't let the predictions of "the experts" worry you too much.. Their prognostications are usually the one thing that doesn't happen, don't you know...

In any case, the hard re-set of the catastrophic "free trade" regime of the last 40 years or so must occur, even if it does cause some short term difficulties. You came loaded with predictions, let me offer you one of my own: if we do not adopt a new course, trade-wise, one which brings manufacturing back to America, the middle class will continue to decline, the dollar will collapse as the world's currency, and the US will become a second-rate power. So we are in a kind of pick-your-poison mode here. Your predictions seem relatively benign (temporarily lower growth, less foreign tourism, etc) as compared to the scenario I foresee if we do not act to change the international trade status quo.

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Ryan Adams's avatar

Is it ok if I use common sense then, instead of "the experts" regarding bringing manufacturing back to America?

You feel some manufacturers might be willing to once again set-up shop in America after off shoring in this environment of tariffs on, off, on, off, on... 90 day pauses and potential consumers living either pay check to pay check or invested in the market, at least in 401ks, who have seen their networth lowered since a week ago?

How long might it take to plan, build and staff manufacturing plants vs. mid terms where Trump is risking a wipe out?

If some raw materials need to be outsourced and tariffed, those goods manufactured will be more expensive.

Labor costs will be more expensive, so those goods manufactured will be more expensive because of that too.

For example:

China - Average Factory Worker

Monthly wage: ¥5,000–¥9,000 RMB ($700–$1,250 USD)

Annual wage: ~$8,000–$15,000 USD

Regional variation: Higher wages in industrial hubs like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou; lower in inland/rural provinces.

United States - Average Factory Worker

Hourly wage: $18–$28/hour (depending on industry and region)

Annual wage: ~$38,000–$58,000 USD

Unionized/high-skill roles: Can exceed $60,000/year

American factory workers earn roughly 3–5x more than Chinese counterparts. although the wage gap has been narrowing slightly over the years as Chinese labor costs rise. U.S. wages are also influenced by higher living costs, union presence, and automation-related skill requirements.

How will AI & robotics alter worker skill set required and quantity of workers likely to be employed?

Tariffs will cause inflation. How will Americans be able to afford higher priced goods particularly in the context of Trump winning in 2024 becasuse of inflation?

I haven't seen any significant reputable polls re consumer sentiment following black Friday last week. But they are coming as are more special elections whose trends didn't bode well for republicans prior to Black Friday. Also coming - inflation. It will be interesting to see how real life collides with maga optimism.

If you haven't seen American Factory, I'd suggest watching it. It's a 2019 Oscar winning documentary that examines the cultural and economic tensions arising from globalization. The film focuses on the reopening of a shuttered General Motors plant in Moraine, Ohio, by Chinese company Fuyao Glass America. Initially, the venture brings hope to the local community, but as operations commence, significant differences in work culture and labor expectations between American workers and Chinese management lead to conflicts in terms of work ethic (Chinese appear to be robotic non-stop workers, American workers not so much), slack safety relative to American standards, etc.

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Pacificus's avatar

Yes, there are some obstacles to bringing manufacturing back to the US, but at this point, we have no choice but to try. A CCP-led world is the alternative. Unacceptable. Hopefully, it is not too late to head off that grim outcome.

I have heard your arguments, in various forms, made many times over the last 40 years, and they are just as bogus now as they ever were. Guess you didn't get the memo.

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Ryan Adams's avatar

Does the memo I didn't get explain why my points are bogus? Please share if it's available. You believe Chinese factory workers do not earn less than American factory workers for example?

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Pacificus's avatar

Allowing our goods to be made under slave labor conditions and then imported tariff- free into the US was a bad idea 40 years ago and remains one today.

Of course Chinese workers are paid far less than are Americans and work under health and environmental conditions we would not tolerate. Yet we did tolerate it, until now. No more.

That's why your points are bogus. I have been explaining this to people like you since the 1980s. Wake up.

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Matt L.'s avatar

Hey Sasha Stoner’s…

Jeff Childers drop this AM on Coffee & Covid is worth the read:

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/the-art-of-the-global-deal-wednesday?utm_campaign=post&triedRedirect=true

His take (which seems credible to me) is that Trump is negotiating ‘everything’ and this is akin to a 4th Turing event. Is this behind the 90 day pause (that still keeps the 10% rolling in?) I see 5 data points supporting that Trump is merely using tariffs as a pressure mechanism to negotiate things beyond that tariff.

1. Vietnam agreed to drop tariffs to zero. Trump said not good enough. Commit to buying Boeing planes & defense arms as well.

2. Israel also dropped tariffs to zero. Trump showed Bibi the door saying ‘not good enough’ & don’t forget US gives you $3.8B per year in direct military aid.

3. EU overture from Ursula fell on flat ears. Trump wants EU to relax/drop its high safety and EPA regulations on cars so US cars can actually be sold there.

4. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) threatened with big tariff if they don’t build in USA and do so quickly.

5. Rumor floating that Trump looking for annual payments from South Korea in exchange for US troop presence.

Here’s Jeff’s words from his piece that resonate:

“Trump is monetizing American hegemony. The globalists built a one-way grocery aisle of dependency — and Trump put a cash register at the end of the aisle. And now the whole world is waiting in line.

No U.S. president has ever simultaneously negotiated with the entire planet over everything — not just trade, but security guarantees, foreign aid, market access, immigration enforcement, energy deals, pharmaceutical policy, and so on— and done it openly, using tariffs as the primary pressure mechanism, rather than through military force, strings on IMF loan, CIA black ops, soft power, or covert destabilization.”

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Ripple's avatar

It would be nice if the US could relax some of its car safety regulations as there are good cars that are sold everywhere but here. E.g., Toyota Hilux.

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Richard Bicker's avatar

It'd be nice to get those European auto-shielding high beam headlights as well. I figure the US DOT will approve them for American drivers in just 5 or 10 years from now...

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Matt L.'s avatar

Personally, I just want European cars that have mostly 'analog' cockpit again. I want to turn my volume dial up and down with my thumb and forefinger. I'm still driving my 2019 because of this ;)

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Jon's avatar

DINGDINGDINGDINGDING!!!!!!!!!

Matt, I'll join your movement to bring analog back, get rid of the fucking tablet that forces me to take my eyes off the road to use, give me back my CD player, and sunglass holder too (Volvo owner), and don't rely on software firms to drive your electronics, and finally, don't make me do an 'update' on that software.

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Brian Katz's avatar

Yea, those digital dashboards can cause some fumbling while driving.

Scary.

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Richard Bicker's avatar

2013 Lexus for my weekly driver (retired).

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Libertarian's avatar

Hey Richard, my fav was a 2011 v8 mustang w stick. Tons of fun.

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Matt L.'s avatar

Oh man, a V8 stick sounds wonderful

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GabeReal's avatar

I’m not sure what headlights you’re referring to, but these new ultra bright headlights that many cars have these days are a serious hazard for oncoming drivers. They’ve nearly blinded me several times and I worry it will lead to an accident some day. Who approved of those anyway? They should be banned!

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Richard Bicker's avatar

Look up ADB (Adaptive Driving Beam) headlights. There's an extensive literature on them. Basically, your high beams are always on. When an oncoming vehicle is detected, computer-controlled movable shutters in each headlight block just the part of the high beam directed at the car until it passes, leaving the rest of the road and shoulders fully illuminated throughout the encounter. More usable lighting for you while drastically reducing the blinding light directed at the oncoming driver. Win-win!

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Matt L.'s avatar

China has an EV brand that is popular there, as well as many other countries called BVD. China actually has a whole bunch more too. China as a whole dominates the world's EV car market. But you won't see them on US roads because we tariff the hell out of them (27.5% before the trade war) which helps Tesla, and Rivian here in the States.

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Paul Kirwin's avatar

Does China allow Tesla’ and Rivian’s to be sold in China without tariffs or special add-on fees?

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Matt L.'s avatar

From what I know, Rivians are only made in USA so if sold in China then there’s a tariff. But Tesla manufacturers their cars sold in China at a China-based plan (Shanghai). So no import tariffs for those made in China Tesla. Tesla’s sold in China likely have a VAT tax added. But I think that is true of everything sold in China so it’s sort of a known up front for every Chinese citizen.

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234's avatar

China has acres and acres of unsold EVs because...no one wants them, einstein.

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Matt L.'s avatar

A quick Google search will reveal that in 2024, China accounted for just over 60% of EV car sales, globally. You can go to many non China countries and see them. So, you’re mistaken that nobody wants them.

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Ryan Adams's avatar

That's humorous! Tariffs are great! Not just on products I want.

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Neil Kellen's avatar

Let those countries bring them to the table...

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Brian Katz's avatar

Jeff’s Substack coverage of this can be inspiring, to those seeing this version of the outcome as the maximum possible outcome: utopian in fact. We all know that there are others, the global elite, screaming that this is a an utter catastrophe. I like Jeff’s inspiration, he is a good writer. Weaves in some very interesting aspects that I had not considered. But I know the ultimate outcome will fall somewhere in between the two extremes, likely leaning more to the most optimistic version. Still, a great result. Time will tell. Fingers crossed.

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PKsweets's avatar

Sasha and Jeff are my first two reads and shares of a day

Thank you

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Matt L.'s avatar

You and I have identical tastes ;)

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JBell's avatar

Throw in JIP and Don Surber for additional flavor!

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PKsweets's avatar

🙌

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Texyz's avatar

Matt eL....you did it. You just coined a new one. We're all 'STONERS'....

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Matt L.'s avatar

I’m telling ya Sasha could market some good merch w/ this tagline. Start w/ some Stoner socks, and have them American made!

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Brian Katz's avatar

Tie dyed bandanas too.

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Kristin's avatar

Loved my 2001 Saab convertible stick. Was a rocket ship, sturdy, well made car. Wish they’d bring Saab back.

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Neil Kellen's avatar

I've been telling everyone I know to read it since I read it early this morning.

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Kathi M's avatar

My first read every morning!

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User's avatar
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Apr 10Edited
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Matt L.'s avatar

TSCM & Intel in talks on a US based JV:

https://www.trendforce.com/news/news/2025/04/10/news-preview-of-key-topics-ahead-of-tsmcs-earnings-call-intel-jv-cowos-concerns-tariff-threats-and-more/

I think you are a bit nuts to think ROK & Israel can give the US the bird. Enjoy your peanuts and cashews ;)

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RC's avatar

Oh so insider trading is a problem now? While Nasty Pelosi and every member of our Government has been doing it for decades? How transparent. Their TDS came with a lot of "it's ok when we do it" symptoms.

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Tom Ingham's avatar

Walter Kirn had a great post 2 days ago. "He found where the on/off switch was and he can now use it at will."

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Richard's avatar

Absurd overreaction in both directions. Wall Street is not Main Street.

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Suzanne-Marie English's avatar

Thanks, Sasha — yet again! (I also appreciate you on FB — and/but, man they are largely an ugly group who “follow” — more like hatefully heckle you! — there)

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Libertarian's avatar

She’s great and the more awesome she shows herself to be to more pathetic her critics demonstrate themselves to be.

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Ripple's avatar

I didn't know Sasha was active on FB. Just sent her a friend request.

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Suzanne-Marie English's avatar

👍🏼💪🏼Good! 😉😬Be prepared to also take their “spit balls” when you “like” her posts. It’s pretty incredible.

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Libertarian's avatar

Honestly those stalkers are just horribles.

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Neil Kellen's avatar

I'm pretty proud of myself - I just earned my second Substack stalker!

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Les Vitailles's avatar

Planned in advance or not, the end result is the stock market recovered, 70 nations have offered to reduce tariffs and barriers on US goods and China is all by itself because no one is offering to reduce trade barriers with China.

Couldn't plan a better trade strategy.

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234's avatar

I'm sure Schiff knows all about insider trading...learned it all from Al Gore & Nancy Pelosi.

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Heidi Kulcheski's avatar

It's not insider trading what you give the entire world the same tip.

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234's avatar

I have no idea what you're talking about, and I'm not sure you do, either.

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Terry Kayser's avatar

And I call for an investigation of Adam Schiff, no doubt in my mind they would find plenty on which to prosecute him.

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Current Resident's avatar

I'm still waiting for the bipartisan bill limiting congressional stock trades to go somewhere. Until then, the Democrats will complain when they're not in on it.

Good post.

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Mathew David Peckinpah's avatar

Blue states will be going broke if not already broke.

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Ryan Adams's avatar

How so?

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Bob's avatar

Companies and high earners moving out. Homeless and immigrants needing services moving in. (Washington State is a Blue State, but has no income tax, so overall holding population steady except in and around Seattle.)

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Mathew David Peckinpah's avatar

Huge debt and unfunded liabilities. Most if not all the blue states are "Upside down."

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Kenn Goodwin's avatar

Ms. Stone, on time every time.

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Curt Chipman's avatar

Adam Schiff where did our money go in California? Why didn’t our super duper rail system get built? Mr. Schiff we’ve got the Olympics coming in 2028. I suggest you get off your ass and prioritize rebuilding Ms. Stone’s surrounding neighborhood areas. Oh and get rid of the leftist regulatory red tape and build back Los Angeles better baby!

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Anthony Mendoza's avatar

Democrats are going to go with "market manipulation". It's official. The Democratic party is f***ing stupid.

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Luke's avatar

I’m beginning to think this whole thing might’ve been setup. A setup to set China up. 🤭

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Matt L.'s avatar

I really like that as part of this '90 day pause' that the 10% tariff still remains on everyone besides China. After showing the 'high' and now bringing it down to 10% (for the time being) is brilliant. Because markets, pundits and export countries feel like they've all 'won' for the time being. But cha-ching $, US is still pulling in Billions every week, even at the 10%.

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234's avatar

This is how you negotiate pal.

Ever wonder why Trump is worth $Billions, and you're clipping coupons?

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Tommyv's avatar

Trump is too smart for all of them. Balls the size of the empire state building, Dems don't know what to do...he (and us) just keep on winning!

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